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Aging Population


Aging Population

Vicky Yao Feb.18th,2012

CONTENT
?Definition

?Aging around the world
?Aging in China

Definition
summary term for shifts in the age distribution of a population toward older ages. ’’

“Aging of population is a

Aging around the world
? Population ageing is widespread across the world. It is most advanced in the most highly developed countries. However the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing ,one of the top institutions looking at global population ageing, has concluded that population ageing has slowed considerably in Europe and will have the greatest future impact in Asia.

According to U.S Census Bureau Report, people above 65 years of age will double in representation of the whole by 2040. Elders 65 and above represent today 7 percent of the world’s population. It is predicted that within 30 years it will double to 14 percent.

The Graying of the United States

Reasons

With longer education time, the age of women having their first baby after marriage has grown, too.

People are more likely to settle down at a later age, having already settled into their career.

The dying rate is decreasing in recent years because of better medical treatment , which make the elder living longer, in hot economics today.

? In industrialized countries, the number of people reaching retirement age is growing, while the number of working age people is declining.

Influences
? lack of human resource
(Labor supply depends on the number of working age population with working age population activities rate.)

? more retired people ? high social stress

Aging in China
? Causes of Population Aging in China
? Population Aging—China’s Disadvantages ? Population Aging—China’s Advantages ? How Can China Cope with Population Aging?

Causes of Population Aging in China

One more special: China carried out birth control in the 1970s, which caused the steep birth rate declines.

Fertility Decline in China

4

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? 2009 The Conference Board, Inc.

Declining Death Rates for China’s Men from their Late Forties through all Older Age Groups

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? 2009 The Conference Board, Inc.

Declining Death Rates for China’s Women from their Late Forties through all Older Age Groups

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? 2009 The Conference Board, Inc.

Median Age of Asian Populations, 2000-2050

Country Japan South? Korea China Indonesia India Pakistan

2000 41.3 32.0 30.0 24.8 22.7 18.8

2010 44.6 38.0 34.9 28.2 25.0 22.1

2020 48.5 43.4 37.9 32.0 28.1 25.3

2030 52.1 48.1 41.3 35.4 31.7 28.2

2040 54.3 51.9 44.1 38.4 35.3 30.9

2050 54.9 54.9 45.0 41.1 38.6 34.1

Source:? nited? aEons?opulaEon?atabase:?Hp://esa.un.org/unpp U N p d h ?

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? 2009 The Conference Board, Inc.

Population concentrated in working ages
? China has a demographic window of opportunity, which

has been benefiting China’s economy for over 2 decades and will continue to do so for several more decades.
? Not only is child dependency low today, so is aged

dependency.
? Today’s elderly cohorts are comparatively small. Most

were born and raised before the PRC was founded, during war, invasion, economic dislocation.
? Therefore, most of China’s population today is in the

working age groups. They tend to be healthier than the old, and they at least have the potential to work and produce.
? Labor force age groups have increased faster than

China’s total population for 3 decades.
9 www.conference-board.org
? 2009 The Conference Board, Inc.

Employment Challenges

? The huge and growing working age groups have posed

the challenges of increasing the numbers of jobs as well as raising job productivity.
? The most recent decade—job growth has barely kept up

with population growth in labor force ages. Productivity per worker has increased rapidly.
? Now with the global economic downturn, employment

headaches are fast becoming salient.

10

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? 2009 The Conference Board, Inc.

China, 2008 Population Structure

China, 2008 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 80000 60000

Male

Female

40000

20000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

Population (in thousands)
Source: U. S. Census Bureau, International Data Base

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? 2009 The Conference Board, Inc.

Figure 1. Elderly in China, Population Projection to 2050
450,000 400,000 350,000 80-84 300,000 75-79 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 60-64 50,000 70-74 85+

Populationinthousands

65-69

0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

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? 2009 The Conference Board, Inc.

Population Aging—China’s Disadvantages:

? Not yet a highly developed country. ? Weak pension and health care systems, especially in the

countryside.
? Current and increasing aging of the workforce.

? Low urban retirement ages coupled with rapidly rising number of

urbanites in their forties and older.
? Elderly villagers left behind as their grown children migrate to

urban areas.

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? 2009 The Conference Board, Inc.

Population Aging—China’s Advantages:
? Culture of strong family ties and widespread expectation that

family members will care for the elderly; this responsibility is also a legal one.
? Unusually high levels of literacy and educational attainment for

a developing country population.
? High labor force participation among men and women. As

population ages, China can more fully use its surplus labor and currently underutilized workers.
? Compared to most developing countries, China’s people have

better access to housing, food, land for growing food, and other basic needs.
? The Chinese government is reasonably competent and actively

dealing with issues of an aging population.
? China has plenty of time to learn from other countries.
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? 2009 The Conference Board, Inc.

What can China do to cope with aging of the labor force and of the total population?
? In coming decades, China can continue raising

the productivity of its working age population, moving workers out of agriculture into higher value added jobs.
? China can continue urbanizing. The country still

has a low level of urbanization for its current level of development.
? Keep training adult workers to raise their human

capital.
? China can continue emphasizing

education—raising the literacy and educational level of the population, especially of the younger working cohorts.
27 www.conference-board.org
? 2009 The Conference Board, Inc.

Other proposals:
? Implement a nationwide rural and urban health

insurance system for all ages including elderly.
? Tell workers now that their future retirement age,

when they will be eligible for pension or social security, will rise gradually from 60 to 70 for successive future retiring cohorts. (Many developed countries are now raising legal retirement ages.)
? Allow voluntary and for-profit organizations to operate

everywhere to help serve the needs of the elderly.

28

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? 2009 The Conference Board, Inc.

Can China cope with

population aging ?

China can cope with population aging
? China has many advantages in the coming

decades. China can learn from the successes & mistakes of developed countries already dealing with severe population aging.
? China has hundreds of millions of low

productivity workers who can be used more productively in future.
? Chinese society has good customs of loving,

caring for, and supporting the elderly, like other rapidly aging East Asian societies—Japan, South Korea for example.
? China is good at adapting to new challenges.
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? 2009 The Conference Board, Inc.

With the arrival of aging, there will be more elderly people.

So ,we have to think about the matter that

how we should treat old people.
1.The responsibility of the government 2.What can society do 3.What should we do

Government should concern about the health of the elderly, and provide more medical facilities for them.

Public facilities should be asked to facilitate(便利) the elderly .

Strengthen the old-age social security.

Everyone should think about their feelings,and give them more love.

Enrich the cultural life of the elderly. Encourage elderly people to participate in social activities.

Everyone should respect and care for the elderly.

Don’t regard them as useless.

Childrens should spend more time with their parents. No matter what you do with them ,they will be so happy.

What parents want is not money but more love .

The love between you will never be measured with money.

Thank You


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