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China?Human?Development?Report?2009:? Low?Carbon?Economy?and?Society

Key?Messages
Programme?of?Energy?and?Climate?Economics? (PECE)

A?matter?of?trade‐off?between?different? goals?and?policy?objectives:
Human?development
Economic?development?and?meeting?necessary?needs?of? the?poor; Life?quality?and?welfare;?and Respects?and?freedom

Global?climate?protection Local?environmental?quality
2

Contents
Linkages?between?human?development?and?low?carbon? economy?and?society?(LCES) Major?challenges?and?opportunities Major?determinants Strategies:?Pathway?towards?LCES Policy?and?Measures

3

Linkages?between?human?development?and? low?carbon?economy?and?society?(LCES)

Human?Development?and?Capability
Capability?Approach A?person’s?capability?refers?to?the?feasible?set?or?sets?of? functions?that?circumstances?allow?him?or?her?to?achieve:?
Educated/Human?Resources; Long?and?healthy?life; Decent?living?standards,?inter?alia,?poverty?alleviation; Political,?economic,?and?civil?freedom/good?governance.

5

Concept?of?LCES(1)
Low?carbon?economy
High?carbon?productivity?accompanied?by?corresponding? institutional?arrangement,?policy?&?measures,?human? resources,?technology?system,?financial?system,?in?a?specific? context?of?development?stage,?geographic?circumstances,? resource?endowment,?etc,?without?compromise?of?enhancing? capability?needed?for?human?development

6

Concept?of?LCES(2)
Low?carbon?society
Equity:?meeting?the?human?development?needs?of?all? groups?within?the?society; Adopting?low?carbon?social?value,?awareness,?lifestyle; Information?transparency,?public?participation,?good? governance; Low?carbon?education?system;? Green?job;?and Others
7

Analytical?Framework
Climate?change

+
Impact?
Innovation

Economy?&?society?

+

+
Population

Fossil?fuel?

+

GHG?emission?

+
Human?development:?
Income,?education,? health…

Adaptation?
8

+
Response?capacity

Distributional?effects,? e.g.,?income?gap?

-

-

Response?Measure for?mitigation

General?linkages?between?climate? change?and?human?development
Climate?change?leads?such?problems?as?water?stress,? food,?resettlement,?public?health,?extreme?disasters?by? its?impacts?on?ecosystem?based?on?which?human?beings? are?alive.?These?damages?are?obviously?harmful?to? human?development; Different?response?measures/solutions?for?climate? change?might?make?different?distributional?effects?on? different?groups?in?the?society,?and?thus?lead?impacts? on?equity?in?income,?education,?health?care,?and? economic?and?political?freedom.
9

Climate?Change

Avoiding?negative? impact?of?CC Agriculture?and?

Impact
Forestry?and?Other? Water?Resources Coastal?Zones

Livestock?Breeding Natural?Ecosystems

Low?Carbon? Economy? and?Society

Economy?and? Society

Human?Development
Hunger Education
New?Investment?and? Employment?Opportunities Energy?Security Environmental?pollution Etc.

Gender Equality

Health

Poverty

Environmental? Sustainable? Mortality Sustainability Livelihoods Child?

10

Case?1:?Climate?Change?and?Poverty?in?China
Climate?change?is?set?to?exacerbate?poverty??both?directly?and? indirectly. In?China,?poverty‐stricken?areas?have?a?strong?correlation??to? ecologically?fragile?areas?and?their?geographical??distribution?is? equally?very?similar. 95?percent?of?the?people?living?in?absolute?poverty?are?living?in? ecologically?damaged?areas?in?the?interior?of?the?country.
Source?:?Green?Peace?and?Oxfam,?2009.Climate?Change?and?Poverty‐A?Case?Study?of? China
11

12

Source:?Green?Peace?and?Oxfam,?2009.Climate?Change?and?Poverty

13

Source:?Green?Peace?and?Oxfam,?2009.Climate?Change?and?Poverty

14

Source:?Green?Peace?and?Oxfam,?2009.Climate?Change?and?Poverty

Case?2:HDI?and?Carbon?Productivity

Municipalities? Eastern Middle Western?

15

Source:China?Energy?Statistical?Yearbook,?2008;China?Human?Development?Report? 2007‐2008,?2008

Major?Challenges?and?Opportunities

The?significance?of?the?development?of?low‐ carbon?economy?in?China?
Challenge?
Heavy‐chemical?industrialization? stage?of?economic?growth Coal‐dominated?energy?structure Disadvantaged?technology?system Weak?institutional?capacity.

Opportunity
New?engine?of?economy?growth Long‐term?technological/economic? competitiveness Changing?of?development?pattern Cleaner?environment?and?healthy? ecosystem,?etc.

17

Major?Determinants?of?Carbon?Footprint and?their?Status

Carbon?Footprint:?Status?(1)
7000

Total?GHG?Emission?of?Key?countries(1970‐2005)

6000 USA Total Emission(Mt CO2) 5000 China 4000 Germany Brazil 3000 UK 2000 India Janpan 1000

0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year

19

Source:?Climate?Analysis?Indicators?Tool?(CAIT)?Version?6.0.?(Washington,?DC:? World?Resources?Institute,?2009).

Carbon?Footprint:?Status?(2)
Per?Capital?Emission?of?key?countries(1970‐2005)
25

20

USA China

t CO2 per person

Germany 15 Brazil UK 10 India Janpan 5

China

0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year

20

Source:?Climate?Analysis?Indicators?Tool?(CAIT)?Version?6.0.?(Washington,?DC:?World? Resources?Institute,?2009).

Carbon?Footprint:?Status?(3)
Cumulative?emissions?of?key?countries?(1860‐2005)
350000 300000 Cumulative Emissions(Mt CO2) 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0
USA EU 27 China Germany UK Japan France India Canada

Country

21

Source:?Climate?Analysis?Indicators?Tool?(CAIT)?Version?6.0.?(Washington,?DC:?World? Resources?Institute,?2009).

HD?and?Urbanization?&?Industrialization?
Human?development?requires?urbanization?and? industrialization?for
Higher?income?and?more?job?opportunity better?infrastructures?and?more?conveniences stronger?capability?to?adapt?to?climate?change/avoiding?disaster more?qualified?human?resources?via?health?and?education? improvement more?opportunities?to?access?to?information?and?decision?making more?freedom,?and others
22

Determinants?of?Carbon?Footprint??in?the? Course?of?Urbanization?&?Industrialization:
Emission Energy GDP Emission = * * * Pop Energy GDP Pop

Population:?total,?share,?and?change Economic?stage:?total,?per?capita, and?structure Resource?endowment Technology?level Globalization?and?International?labor?division:? international?trade?&?investment?and?migration
23

Determinant?1:?Population?and? Urbanization
China’s?population?and?urbanization?rate?trends(1995‐2006)
Population?(10?thousand?people) 135000 130000 125000 120000 115000 110000 105000
20 02 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 04 20 06 20 08

Urbanlization?rate(%)

50 45 40 35 30 25 20

Domestic?energy?use?per?capita

?More demand of energy intensive production ?More infrastructure demand
24

Source:?China?Statistic?Yearbook?2008

Determinant?2:?Economic?Structure
Economic?Structure?of?China?and?other?countries?(?2007)?
100% 90% 80% 70%

Rate

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

China

Germany

UK

EU27

Primary?Industry?
25

Secondary?Industry

Tertiary?Industry?

Source:?Eurostat,?2009?,China?Statistic?Yearbook?2008

Determinants?3: Economic?Development?Stage
25 20 15 Germany 10 5 0 0 Janpan China India 5,000 Brazil 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 UK France

Tons CO2 Per Person

USA

GDP per person (Intl $)

26

Source:Climate?Analysis?Indicators?Tool?(CAIT)?Version?6.0.?(Washington,?DC:?World? Resources?Institute,?2009).

Determinants?3: Economic?development?stage
6.00

Western

Middle
Inner Mongolia

Eastern

5.00 Energy consumption (tce per capita)

Ningxia

Shanxi 4.00 Qinghai Hebei Xinjiang 3.00 Jilin Heilongjiang 2.00 Guizhou Yunnan Jiangxi Anhui 1.00 500 1,000 Hainan Guangxi 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Hubei Gansu Sichuan Shaanxi Henan Fujian Shangdong Zhejiang Jiangsu Guangdong Liaoning

Hunan

GDP (yuan per capita)

27

Source:?China?Statistic?Yearbook?2008

Determinant?4:Energy?resource?endowment
100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0% USA UK Coal
28

Janpan Germany France Oil Gas

China Nuclear

Brazil

India Other

Source:?BP?Statistical?Review?of?World?Energy,?2007

Determinants?5:?Technology?Level
There?are?great?technology?gaps?between?China?and? developed?countries.?For?example,?the?average?energy? efficiency?of?China?is?about?36%?in?2005,?which?is?8? percent?lower?than?the?advanced?level?of?the?world,?as? same?as?the?level?of?Europe?in?1990s?and?Japan?in?1975.?

29

International?Comparison?of?energy?consumption?of?energy?intensive?products?(2007)
China Indicators?of?energy?consumption 2000
Coal?consumption?of?thermal?power?generation?(Grams?of?coal? equivalent/kWh) Comparable?energy?consumption?of?steel?(Kilograms?of?coal? equivalent/ton) Electricity?consumption?of?electrolytic?aluminum?(kWh/ton) Integrated?energy?consumption?of?copper?smelting?(Kilograms?of? coal?equivalent/ton) Integrated?energy?consumption?of?cement?(Kilograms?of?coal? equivalent/ton) Integrated?energy?consumption?of?flat?glass?(Kilograms?of?coal? equivalent/Weight?Box) Integrated?energy?consumption?of?crude?oil?processing?(Kilograms of?coal?equivalent/ton) Integrated?energy?consumption?of?ethylene?(Kilograms?of?coal? equivalent/ton) Integrated?energy?consumption?of?ammonia?(Kilograms?of?coal? equivalent/ton) Integrated?energy?consumption?of?diaphragm?caustic?soda? (Kilograms?of?coal?equivalent/ton) Integrated?energy?consumption?of?soda?ash?(Kilograms?of?coal? equivalent/ton) Integrated?energy?consumption?of?Calcium?Carbide?(Kilograms?of? coal?equivalent/ton) Integrated?energy?consumption?of?paper?and?paper?board? (Kilograms?of?coal?equivalent/ton) 30

International? 2007 333 668 14488 610 158 17 110 984 1553 1203 363 3418 NA advanced?level 299 610 14100 500 127 15 73 629 1000 910 310 3030 640

The?gap?in?2007 Energy? consumption 34 58 388 110 31 2 37 355 553 293 53 388 650 Percentage 11.4? 9.5? 2.8? 22.0? 24.4? 13.3? 50.7? 56.4? 55.3? 32.2? 17.1? 12.8? 115.0?

2005 343 714 14680 780 167 22 114 1073 1650 1297 396 3450 1380

363 784 15480 1277 181 25 118 1125 1699 1435 406 NA 1540

Source:?Energy?Data?of?2008,?WANG?Qingyi,?2008

Determinants?6:Globalization‐trade,? investment,?labor?division

31

Source:?McKinsey&Company,?2009.China’s?green?revolution

Strategies:?Pathway?towards?LCES

Balancing?cost?and?benefit?of?low? carbon?future
Cost
Direct?financial?cost Potential?damages?to? economy Other?social?costs(?loss?of? jobs?and?livelihoods,?further? inequality?among?certain? groups,?etc.)

Benefit
Mitigation?of?climate? change?risk?and?impact Creation?of?new?jobs Energy?security

33

Scenarios?Family
Primary energy demand under reference scenario(100 million tce) 70
70 PECE-EC PECE-EA IPAC-LC IPAC-ALC WEO2007-AP Primary energy demand under alternative scenario(100 million tce)

60

60

50

PECE IPAC IEO2009 WEO2008

50

40

40

30

30

20 2005
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 PECE IPAC IEO2009 WEO2008

20

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

CO2 emission under reference scenario(GT)
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4

CO2 emission under alternative scenario(GT)

PECE-EC PECE-EA IPAC-LC IPAC-ALC W EO2007-AP

34

4

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Incremental?Investment?and?cost?for?LCES
? Year? Reference?scenario? 2020? 2030 14.9 9.8? ? 2050 17.4 11.4 2020? 8.7? 6? 2.3? Emission?control?scenario? 2030? 10? 6.6? 4.9? 2050? 11.2? 7.4? 6.2? 8.7? 6? 2.3? Emission?reduction?scenario? 2020? 2030? 10? 6.6? 4.9? 2050? 6.1? 4? 11.3? Total?emission?Gt‐CO2? 11? Emission?per?capita?t‐CO2? 7.6? Emission?reduction? Gt‐CO2(compared?with? reference)? Accumulative? incremental?investment? (billion?US$‐2005)? Incremental?investment? (billion?US$‐2005)?

?

1100?

3722?

9736?

1100?

4235?

14233?

?

110?

260?

300?

110?

310?

500?

2010‐2020,? 2020‐2030,? 2030‐2050,? 2020‐2030,? 2030‐2050,? 2010‐2020,? annual?average annual?average annual?average annual?average annual?average annual?average? ? ? ? ? 62? ? 27? 284? ? 58? 508? ? 82? 62? ? 27? 284? ? 58? 1740? ? 154?

Incremental?cost? ? (billion?US$‐2005)? Reduction?cost? (US$‐2005/?CO2)?

Source:?PECE,?2009
35

Technology?Needs?for?LCES
Power USC; NGCC; On-shore/Off-shore wind power; Advanced PWR and HTGR; 2nd Biomass; IGCC; Solar Photovoltaic; Geothermal–Enhanced; CCS; Nuclear fusion; CSP; Power storage; 4th generation nuclear; Hydrogen fuel cell; CDQ; CCPP; Power, heat and fuel recovery; Coal Injection; Energy management center; CMC; COREX; FINEX; Advance EF; Smelting reduction technology; Waste Plastic Injection; Direct Casting; CCS;

Power

Steel

Transport

Transport Improved engine/ transmission/ matching technology; Advanced diesel vehicles; Railway electrification; Aviate fuel economy management; Hybrid vehicles; Enhance fuel economy of transport system by information & intelligent systems Improved road network; Fuel cell vehicles; Electric-motor vehicles; Optimizing the construction and integration of transport capacity; Cement NSP, especially the automatic control device; Low-temperature cogeneration; Eco-cement; Alternative fuels and cement clinkers; CCS; Buildings Green Lighting; Technologies and materials of heat-insulation of external walls and roofs; Advanced efficiency electric devices; Heat pump system; Heat-electricity-coal triple co-supply system; Building integrated photovoltaic solar power system; Energy storage technology ; Zero-emission buildings; Advanced city plan;

Industry

Building Agriculture &?forest Source:?McKinsey?analysis

36

Source:PECE,2009

Impacts?of?Different?Pathways
Economic?impact?:?GDP Employment Energy?security Ecological?security Social?development Poverty?alleviation??

37

Impact?on?Economic?Growth
GDP loss rate( %)
2020 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

C1 C2 C3

Source:?Wang?Ke,?2008
38

Impact?on?Employment
Cost
Increased?unemployment?rate?in? energy‐intensive?industries Additional?capacity?building?needs Wind
PV Solar heating
Existing?job?in?energy‐intensive?industries
Manufacturing?? 1,237,226?

Benefit
New?green?job
Green job in China (2006) 22,200 55,000 600,000 266,000 943,200

Bio-energy Total

Electricity?supply

6,454?

39

Impact?on?Energy?Security
Reduce?oil?import‐dependency?

Import‐ dependent:? 40%

Import‐ dependent:? 79%

Import‐ dependency:? 67%‐71%

40

Summary?on?Pathway?towards?LCES
The?pressure?of?future?emission?will?be?high?with? consideration?of?the?trends?of?population,?urbanization,? industrialization,?and?lifestyle,?as?well?as?technologies?and? energy?&?resource?endowment. Emission?reduction?potential?exists?based?on?change?of? technology?and?lifestyle Significant/substantial?financial,?economic?and?social?cost?may? occur. New?opportunities?for?job,?engine?of?economic?growth,?co‐ benefits?are?emerging,?but?need?further?identification. Endogenous?capacity?building,?financing,?technology?transfer? will?be?needed Policy?and?institutional?reform?will?be?crucial.
41

Policy?and?Measures?

Policy?Framework?in?China
National?strategies
Sustainable?development Scientific?development Resource?saving?and?environmentally?sound?society Energy?saving?and?pollution?abatement Fighting?climate?change?

Sector?policies
Energy?policy Industry?policy Agricultural?and?forestry?policy Technology?policy Economic?policy

Provincial/local?policies?and?practices
43

Actions?to?combat?climate?change Low‐carbon?experiment

Policy Energy Conservation Law Renewable Energy Law Medium and Long Term Energy Conservation Plan National plan The 11th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development Medium and Long Term Plan for Renewable Energy Technology policy National Policy for the Saving Energy Technology Standards Energy Efficiency Standard Backward production capacity inventory and phaseControal and out timetable Assignment of energy saving tasks to local command Energy-saving of thousands of enterprises ” Energy-saving fund Fiscal policy Government procurement of energy saving products Subsidy for renewable energy power generation Value-added tax discount Reform of export tax rebate Consumption duty-oil Tax policy Consumption duty-motor vehicle Export tariff increase Resource tax Loan discount for energy saving projects Credit policy Credit restriction for energy intensive industry Pricing reform of energy products Pricing policy Differential pricing-energy intensive industry Differential pricing-renewable enery Promotion of energy-saving products Key Energy Saving Projects Eco-household Project Rural biogas promotion and application Six afforestation projects Rural electrification Social participation Energy Saving Week Legislation

Enforce- Carbon HDR ment objective objective

对现有政策的评价

Measurameasurability, reportability and verifiability No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

否 否

Yes Yes Yes

44

Good or positive Moderate or neutral

Bad or negative Uncertain

Chen, 2009

Policy?Matrix

45

Low?Carbon?Policy?Roadmap
Policy Legislation National plan Technology policy Standards Controal and command Enforcement regulations of Energy Conservation Law Enforcement regulations of Renewable Energy Law Synchorozation of the objectives of different national plans with the objectives of low-carbon economy and society Innovation and promotion of low carbon technologies Energy Efficiency Standard Energy permission Market access Backward production capacity inventory and phase-out timetable Assignment of energy saving tasks to local government Energy-saving fund Government procurement of energy saving products Supply agreement of low-carbon products in government procurement Renewable energy fund Subsidy for low-carbon products and services Subsidy for renewable energy power generation Value-added tax discount Reform of export tax rebate Consumption duty-oil Resource tax- increase tax rate Carbon tax Loan discount for energy saving projects Credit restriction for energy intensive industry Venture capital Pricing reform of energy products Differential pricing Tradable permission Voluntary agreements between governments and industries Energy contracts Education and training Media Information services, such as product catalogue, etc. Public involvement Low priority or unlikely Uncertain 2015 2030 2050 Priority Possibility Priority Possibility Priority Possibility

Fiscal policy

Tax policy

Credit policy

Other MBIs Voluntary policy

Informatic policy Social participation

46

High priority or most likely Moderate priority or likely

Chen,2009

Thank?you?for?your?attention!
Contact:?? Prof.?Zou?Ji,??Zouji61@126.com

47


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