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Business Statistics A Decision-Making Approach 6E chapter01


Data Analysis / Business Statistics (商务统计学): A Decision-Making Approach

Name: Telephone number:

Email:

GAOYI (高 毅) (文5-409) 86947996 (H) 88018431 (O) 13065730079 gaoy@zucc.edu.cn
Chap 1-1

网上资源:
?

ftp://10.61.31.13:2121 student student gaoyizucc2005@sina.com password: gaoyizucc2005

?

Chap 1-2

Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write. —H. G. Wells Wells Herbert George (1866-1946), English author and political philosopher

Chap 1-3

研究问题一般的设计与执行步骤
1. 背景研究和文献综述。 2. 定义研究目的及具体假设。 3. 确定要测量的变量及如何测量。 4. 制定收集数据的计划(包括的范围、抽样设计、样本大 小等) 5. 人员训练 6. 汇集数据 7. 分析数据 8. 结果报告

Chap 1-4

Confucius, in Chinese Kongfuzi or K'ung Fu-tzu (551?479? bc), Chinese philosopher, one of the most influential figures in Chinese history.

“I hear, I forget; I see, I remember; I do, I understand” - Confucius
Chap 1-5

?

? ?

?

? ? ?

1. Anderson David R; Dennis J. Sweeney and Thomas A. Williams: Statistics for Business and Economics, 8th Ed.(英文本或中译本) 机械工业出版社 2. 戴维.S.穆尔(David S. Moore) : 《统计学的世界(第五版)》 (中译本)中信出版社 3. James R. Evans: Essentials of Business Statistics 中国人民大学 出版社 4. Douglas A. Lind etc: Statistical Techniques in Business & Economics, 11th Ed. (英文本或中译本)中信出版社或机械工业出 版社 5. http://www.statsoft.com/textbook/stathome.html 6. (美国)沃肯巴赫著//陈缅等译 中文版Excel2003宝典(附光盘)/美国 计算机宝典丛书 电子工业出版社2004-05-01出版 7. 李志辉等编: SPSS for Windows统计分析教程(附光盘第3版)电 子工业出版社

Chap 1-6

Statistical computer packages
?
? ? ? ?

?

?

Excel PaceXL PHStat Minitab SPSS 统计产品与服务解决方案(Statistical Product and Service Solutions) EViews (Econometric Views) ForecastX

Chap 1-7

SPSS Inc. (SPSS)

Chap 1-8

Chapter 1 The Where, Why, and How of Data Collection

Chap 1-9

Chapter Goals
After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
?

?

Describe key data collection methods Know key definitions:
?Population vs. Sample ?Qualitative vs. Qualitative data ?Primary vs. Secondary data types ?Time Series vs. Cross-Sectional data

?

Explain the difference between descriptive and inferential statistics Describe different sampling methods
Chap 1-10

?

Chap 1-11

Gallup, George Horace (1901-1984), American public opinion analyst and statistician
? ? ?

www.gallup.com www.bls.gov www.census.gov

Chap 1-12

What is Business Statistics?
The numerical facts in the preceding statements (……) are called statistics (统计资料,统计数据).Thus, in everyday usage, the term “statistics” refers to numerical facts. Such statistics merely provide descriptive information. In a board sense, statistics (统计学) is the art and science of collecting, analyzing, presenting, and interpreting data. Particularly in business, a major reason for collecting, analyzing, presenting, and interpreting.

Chap 1-13

Chap 1-14

什么是统计学?
1. 收集数据
Collecting Data

数据 分析Data
Analysis

为什么?

例,问卷调查Survey 2. 表示数据
Presenting Data 例,图表Charts & Tables

做出决策
DecisionMaking

3. 描述数据
Characterizing Data 例,平均值Average

?1984-1994 T/Maker Co.

Chap 1-15

应用范围 Application Areas
管理Management 了解员工 Describe
Employees 提高质量Quality Improvement

会计Accounting 审计Auditing 成本核算Costing

财务Finance
财务走向 Financial Trends
预测Forecasting

营销 Marketing 消费者偏好 Consumer Preferences 营销策略 Marketing Mix Effects
Chap 1-16 Chapt. 1-4

1999 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

Simpson’s paradox
On time Delayed Rate of Late flights

Alaska Airlines America West

3274 6438

501 787

501/3775 =13.3% 787/7225 =10.9%

Chap 1-17

City
Los Angeles Phoenix San Diego San Francisco Seattle Total

Alaska Airlines

America West

On Time Delayed On Time Delayed 497 62 694 117 221 212 503 1841 3274 12 20 102 305 501 4840 383 320 201 6438 415 65 129 61 787

Chap 1-18

0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 Los Angeles Phoenix San Diego San Francisco Seattle 0.144 0.111 0.079 0.052 0.145 0.086

Alaska Airlines America West

0.287 0.233 0.169 0.142

Resource: A. Barnett, “How numbers can trick you,” Technology Review, October 1994.
Chap 1-19

Tools of Business Statistics
?

Descriptive statistics(描述统计学)
?

Collecting, presenting, and describing data

?

Inferential statistics(推断统计学)
?

Drawing conclusions and/or making decisions concerning a population(总体,母体) based only on sample data(抽样资料, 样本数据)

Chap 1-20

Descriptive Statistics
?

Collect data (p.19-25)
?

e.g., Survey, Observation, Experiments

?

Present data (Chapter 2)
?

e.g., Charts and graphs

?

Characterize data (Chapter 3)

?x ? e.g., Sample mean =
n

i

Chap 1-21

Data Sources
Primary
Data Collection

Secondary
Data Compilation

Print or Electronic Observation Survey

Experimentation
Chap 1-22

?
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

?
? ? ? ? ?

中华人民共和国国家统计局 中国统计信息网 国内地方统计站点 中国国家统计局数据 中国高校统计教育信息网 Australian Bureau of Statistics Bureau of Labor Statistics The Economics Statistics Briefing Room Economy at a Glance FRED Database The Financial Data Finder Econ Data & Links, (CSU Fresno) National Income and Product Accounts (U. of Virginia) U.S. Department of Commerce Web Sites on the Economy and Statistics International Statistical Institute (ISI) Interstate Statistical Committee of the Commonwealth of the Independent States CIA World Factbook Data on the net Statistical Abstract of the United States UN Monthly Bulletin of Statistics Statistics StatisticalResourcesontheWeb-Economics (UNSD) qed.econ.queensu.ca-jaeU.S. Bureau of the Census

Chap 1-23

Data Sources
初级数据收集 次级数据收集
Print or Electronic
观测 调查

试验

Chap 1-24

Survey Design Steps
?

Define the issue
?

what are the purpose and objectives of the survey?

?

Define the population of interest

?

Formulate survey questions
? ? ?

make questions clear and unambiguous use universally-accepted definitions limit the number of questions

Chap 1-25

Survey Design Steps
(continued)
?

Pre-test the survey
? ?

pilot test with a small group of participants assess clarity and length

?

Determine the sample size and sampling method
Select Sample and administer the survey

?

Chap 1-26

Types of Questions
?

Closed-end Questions(封闭式问题)
?

Select from a short list of defined choices

?

Example: Major: __business __liberal arts __science __other Open-end Questions (开放式问题)
?

Respondents are free to respond with any value, words, or statement

Example: What did you like best about this course?
?

Demographic Questions(人口统计学问题)
?

Questions about the respondents’ personal characteristics

Example: Gender: __Female __ Male
Chap 1-27

Populations and Samples
?

A Population(总体,母体) is the set of all items or individuals of interest
?

Examples:

All likely voters in the next election All parts produced today All sales receipts for November

?

A Sample (样本) is a subset of the population
?

Examples:

1000 voters selected at random for interview A few parts selected for destructive testing Every 100th receipt selected for audit

Chap 1-28

Population vs. Sample
Population
a b cd

Sample
b c

ef gh i jk l m n
o p q rs t u v w x y z o

gi
r y

n
u

Chap 1-29

Why Sample?
?
? ?

Less time consuming than a census
Less costly to administer than a census

It is possible to obtain statistical results of a sufficiently high precision based on samples.

Chap 1-30

Sampling Techniques
Samples

Non-Probability Samples Judgement
Convenience

Probability Samples
Simple Random

Systematic Cluster

Stratified

Chap 1-31

Statistical Sampling
?

Items of the sample are chosen based on known or calculable probabilities
Probability Samples

Simple
Random

Stratified

Systematic

Cluster

Chap 1-32

Simple Random Samples(简单随机样本)
?

Every individual or item from the population has an equal chance of being selected
Selection may be with replacement or without replacement Samples can be obtained from a table of random numbers or computer random number generators

?

?

Chap 1-33

Stratified Samples(分层样本)
?

Population divided into subgroups (called strata) according to some common characteristic Simple random sample selected from each subgroup Samples from subgroups are combined into one

?

?

Population Divided into 4 strata

Sample
Chap 1-34

Systematic Samples(系统样本)
? ?

Decide on sample size: n Divide frame of N individuals into groups of k individuals: k=N/n

?

Randomly select one individual from the 1st group
Select every kth individual thereafter
N = 64 n=8 k=8
Chap 1-35

?

First Group

Cluster Samples(集群样本)
?

Population is divided into several “clusters,” each representative of the population
A simple random sample of clusters is selected
?

?

All items in the selected clusters can be used, or items can be chosen from a cluster using another probability sampling technique

Population divided into 16 clusters.

Randomly selected clusters for sample
Chap 1-36

Key Definitions
?

A population is the entire collection of things under consideration
?

A population parameter(参数) is a summary measure computed to describe a characteristic of the population

?

A sample is a portion of the population selected for analysis
?

A sample statistic(统计量) is a summary measure computed to describe a characteristic of the sample
Chap 1-37

Inferential Statistics
?

Making statements about a population by examining sample results
Population parameters
(unknown, but can be estimated from sample evidence) (known)

Sample statistics

Inference

Sample

Population

Chap 1-38

Inferential Statistics
Drawing conclusions and/or making decisions concerning a population based on sample results.
?

Estimation(估计)
?

e.g., Estimate the population mean weight using the sample mean weight

?

Hypothesis Testing(假设检验)
?

e.g., Use sample evidence to test the claim that the population mean weight is 120 pounds
Chap 1-39

Data Types
Data

Qualitative (Categorical)
Examples:
? ? ?

Quantitative (Numerical)

Marital Status Political Party Eye Color (Defined categories)

Discrete
Examples:
? ?

Continuous
Examples:
? ?

Number of Children Defects per hour (Counted items)

Weight Voltage (Measured characteristics)
Chap 1-40

Data Types
数据

定性的 (分类的)
Examples:
? ? ?

定量的 (数值的)

Marital Status Political Party Eye Color (Defined categories)

离散的
Examples:
? ?

连续的
Examples:
? ?

Number of Children Defects per hour (Counted items)

Weight Voltage (Measured characteristics)
Chap 1-41

Data Types
?

Time Series Data(时间序列数据)
?

Ordered data values observed over time

?

Cross Section Data(截面数据)
?

Data values observed at a fixed point in time

Chap 1-42

Data, Data Sets, Elements, Variables, and Observations
Variables

Company

Stock Exchange

Annual Earn/ Sales($M) Sh.($)

Dataram EnergySouth Keystone LandCare Psychemedics
Elements

AMEX OTC NYSE NYSE AMEX
Data Set

73.10 74.00 365.70 111.40 17.60

0.86 1.67 0.86 0.33 0.13
Datum
Chap 1-43

Data Types
Sales (in $1000’s) 2003 Atlanta Boston Cleveland Denver 435 320 405 260 2004 460 345 390 270 2005 475 375 410 285 2006 490 395 395 280 Time Series Data

Cross Section Data
Chap 1-44

Data Measurement Levels
Measurements

Ratio/Interval Data

Highest Level Complete Analysis

Rankings Ordered Categories

Ordinal Data

Higher Level Mid-level Analysis

Categorical Codes ID Numbers Category Names

Nominal Data

Lowest Level Basic Analysis

数据测度水平
Measurements

定比/定距数据

Highest Level Complete Analysis

Rankings Ordered Categories

定序数据

Higher Level Mid-level Analysis

Categorical Codes ID Numbers Category Names

定类数据

Lowest Level Basic Analysis

数据是如何测量的? How Are Data Measured?
?

1. 定类数据Nominal
?

?

3. 定距数据Interval
?
? ? ?

范畴
?

例,男-女

?

列举
?

?

2. 定序数据Ordinal
? ?

等距区间 非真值 0 例,摄氏度 测量
等距区间 真值 0 有意义的比值 例,用厘米表示的身高
Chap 1-47

范畴 由排序导出
?

4. 定比数据Ratio
? ? ? ?

例,高-低

?

列举

数据类型 Data Types
数据

数值数据
(定量的)

类型数据
(定性的)

离散的

连续的

Chap 1-48

数据类型举例 Data Type Examples
?

1. 数值数据
?

?

离散的 ? 到现在为止你订过多少种杂志? ___ (数字) 连续的 ? 你有多高? ___ (厘米)

?

2. 类型数据
?

你有存折吗? __ 有 __ 没有

Chap 1-49

数据是如何测量的? How Are Data Measured?
?

1. 定类数据Nominal
?

?

3. 定距数据Interval
?
? ? ?

范畴
?

例,男-女

?

列举
?

?

2. 定序数据Ordinal
? ?

等距区间 非真值 0 例,摄氏度 测量
等距区间 真值 0 有意义的比值 例,用厘米表示的身高
Chap 1-50

范畴 由排序导出
?

4. 定比数据Ratio
? ? ? ?

例,高-低

?

列举

思考题 Thinking Challenge
它们是类型数据还是数值数据? 是离散还是连续? 使用了哪一种计量方法?
1. 性别 ¨ 男,女
2. 体重 ¨ 123, 140.2 等等. 3. 汽车速度 ¨ 78, 64, 45 等等.

4.
5. 6.

温度 ? 78, 64, 85 等等.
兄弟姐妹个数 ? 0-2, 3-5, 6+ 成绩 ? A, B, C 等等.
Chap 1-51

为什么选择样本? Why Sample?
?

1. 破坏受试对象
?

质量控制

? ?

2. 精确可靠的结果 3. 实际的理由
? ?

时间 成本

Chap 1-52

样本类型 Types of Samples
样本 类型

非概率

概率

简单 随机 判断 方便

系统

层次

聚类

Chap 1-53

简单随机样本 Simple Random Sample
?

1. 总体中的每个元素被选中的 机会均等 2. 选择一个受试对象对其他元 素没有影响 3. 使用随机数表,抽奖等

?

?

?1984-1994 T/Maker Co.

Chap 1-54

系统样本 Systematic Sample
?

1. 在前k个元素中随机选 定初始值, 之后每向后数k 个选定一个元素 2. 跳过区间的长度k等于

?

?

总体数量 样本数量
3. 应用于电话调查

?

?1984-1994 T/Maker Co.

Chap 1-55

层次样本 Stratified Sample
?

1. 把总体分为群组
? ? ?

所有学生

互斥性 Mutually Exclusive 完备性 Exhaustive 至少有某种共同特点

走读生

住宿生

?

2. 在组中随机选取样本 Select Simple Random Samples from Subgroups 样本

Chap 1-56

聚类样本 Cluster Sample
? ? ?

1. 给总体分组

公司 (聚类)

2. 随机选类
3. 对选定的类进行普查或 随机抽样调查

样本

Chap 1-57

样本类型 Types of Samples
样本 类型

非概率

概率

随机 样本 判断

系统

层次

聚类

方便
Chap 1-58

抽样造成的误差 Errors Due to Sampling
覆盖面误差
抽样误差 不回答和 度量误差

总体 (学生)

样本框架 (电话簿里 的学生)

计划选取样本 (选定的学生)

实际的 样本
Chap 1-59

Chap 1-60

Chapter Summary
?
?

Reviewed key data collection methods
Introduced key definitions:
?Population vs. Sample
?Qualitative vs. Qualitative data
?Primary vs. Secondary data types

?Time Series vs. Cross-Sectional data

? ? ?

Examined descriptive vs. inferential statistics Described different sampling techniques Reviewed data types and measurement levels

Chap 1-61

Chap 1-62

MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTIONS
When the park ranger at Yellowstone National Park reports the average length of time that visitors spend in the park, he is using: a. graphical tools. b. numerical measures. c. statistical charts. d. histograms or bar charts. Answer: B
?

Chap 1-63

The Biltmore Hotel manager is getting ready to make a presentation that she hopes will justify adding additional staff. As part of the presentation, she has constructed charts and graphs. The general type of statistical analysis she is using is: a. hypothesis testing. b. estimation. c. inferential statistics. d. descriptive statistics. Answer: D
?

Chap 1-64

A tire manufacturing company is interested in obtaining data on stopping distances for each of the three main tread types made by the company. The data collection method that would be most likely used in this case would be: a. telephone survey. b. written questionnaire. c. demographic surveying. d. experiments. Answer: D
?

Chap 1-65

Which of the following data collection methods is most likely to generate the largest nonresponse? a. Mail surveys b. Direct observation c. Telephone surveys d. Personal interviews Answer: A
?

Chap 1-66

In conducting a personal interview, what problem can result if the interviewer is allowed to arbitrarily decide who should be interviewed? a. Non-responses b. Missing data c. Bias d. None of the above. Answer: C
?

Chap 1-67

Another term used for statistical sampling is: a. probability sampling. b. convenience sampling. c. ratio sampling. d. numerical sampling. Answer: A
?

Chap 1-68

If a systematic random sample is to be selected of size 100 from a population with 5,000 items, the first item selected from the ordered population will be: a. randomly selected between 1 and 100. b. randomly selected between 1 and 50. c. any randomly selected value between 1 and 5,000. d. item 50. Answer: B
?

Chap 1-69

General Electric Corporation tracks employee turnover annually. They currently have a data set that contains turnover for the past 20 years. What type of data do they have? a. Time series data b. Cross-sectional data c. Nominal data d. Ordinal data Answer: A
?

Chap 1-70

One difference between interval level data and ratio level data is: a. ratio level data are in numerical order. b. interval level data have a true zero. c. ratio level data have a true zero. d. None of the above. Answer: C
?

Chap 1-71

Keeping up!
?

Do exercises 1-57、63、64

Chap 1-72


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