# Business Statistics A Decision-Making Approach 6E chapter01

Data Analysis / Business Statistics （商务统计学）: A Decision-Making Approach

Name: Telephone number:

Email:

GAOYI (高 毅) (文5-409) 86947996 (H) 88018431 (O) 13065730079 gaoy@zucc.edu.cn
Chap 1-1

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ftp://10.61.31.13:2121 student student gaoyizucc2005@sina.com password: gaoyizucc2005

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Chap 1-2

Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write. —H. G. Wells Wells Herbert George (1866-1946), English author and political philosopher

Chap 1-3

1. 背景研究和文献综述。 2. 定义研究目的及具体假设。 3. 确定要测量的变量及如何测量。 4. 制定收集数据的计划（包括的范围、抽样设计、样本大 小等） 5. 人员训练 6. 汇集数据 7. 分析数据 8. 结果报告

Chap 1-4

Confucius, in Chinese Kongfuzi or K'ung Fu-tzu (551?479? bc), Chinese philosopher, one of the most influential figures in Chinese history.

“I hear, I forget; I see, I remember; I do, I understand” - Confucius
Chap 1-5

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1. Anderson David R; Dennis J. Sweeney and Thomas A. Williams: Statistics for Business and Economics, 8th Ed.（英文本或中译本） 机械工业出版社 2. 戴维.S.穆尔（David S. Moore） : 《统计学的世界（第五版）》 （中译本）中信出版社 3. James R. Evans: Essentials of Business Statistics 中国人民大学 出版社 4. Douglas A. Lind etc: Statistical Techniques in Business & Economics, 11th Ed. （英文本或中译本）中信出版社或机械工业出 版社 5. http://www.statsoft.com/textbook/stathome.html 6. (美国)沃肯巴赫著//陈缅等译 中文版Excel2003宝典(附光盘)/美国 计算机宝典丛书 电子工业出版社2004-05-01出版 7. 李志辉等编: SPSS for Windows统计分析教程（附光盘第3版）电 子工业出版社

Chap 1-6

Statistical computer packages
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Excel PaceXL PHStat Minitab SPSS 统计产品与服务解决方案（Statistical Product and Service Solutions） EViews (Econometric Views) ForecastX

Chap 1-7

SPSS Inc. (SPSS)

Chap 1-8

Chapter 1 The Where, Why, and How of Data Collection

Chap 1-9

Chapter Goals
After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
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Describe key data collection methods Know key definitions:
?Population vs. Sample ?Qualitative vs. Qualitative data ?Primary vs. Secondary data types ?Time Series vs. Cross-Sectional data

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Explain the difference between descriptive and inferential statistics Describe different sampling methods
Chap 1-10

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Chap 1-11

Gallup, George Horace (1901-1984), American public opinion analyst and statistician
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www.gallup.com www.bls.gov www.census.gov

Chap 1-12

The numerical facts in the preceding statements (……) are called statistics (统计资料，统计数据).Thus, in everyday usage, the term “statistics” refers to numerical facts. Such statistics merely provide descriptive information. In a board sense, statistics (统计学) is the art and science of collecting, analyzing, presenting, and interpreting data. Particularly in business, a major reason for collecting, analyzing, presenting, and interpreting.

Chap 1-13

Chap 1-14

1. 收集数据
Collecting Data

Analysis

Presenting Data 例，图表Charts & Tables

DecisionMaking

3. 描述数据
Characterizing Data 例，平均值Average

?1984-1994 T/Maker Co.

Chap 1-15

Employees 提高质量Quality Improvement

Chap 1-16 Chapt. 1-4

1999 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

On time Delayed Rate of Late flights

3274 6438

501 787

501/3775 =13.3% 787/7225 =10.9%

Chap 1-17

City
Los Angeles Phoenix San Diego San Francisco Seattle Total

America West

On Time Delayed On Time Delayed 497 62 694 117 221 212 503 1841 3274 12 20 102 305 501 4840 383 320 201 6438 415 65 129 61 787

Chap 1-18

0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 Los Angeles Phoenix San Diego San Francisco Seattle 0.144 0.111 0.079 0.052 0.145 0.086

0.287 0.233 0.169 0.142

Resource: A. Barnett, “How numbers can trick you,” Technology Review, October 1994.
Chap 1-19

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Descriptive statistics（描述统计学）
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Collecting, presenting, and describing data

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Inferential statistics（推断统计学）
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Drawing conclusions and/or making decisions concerning a population（总体，母体） based only on sample data（抽样资料， 样本数据）

Chap 1-20

Descriptive Statistics
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Collect data (p.19-25)
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e.g., Survey, Observation, Experiments

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Present data (Chapter 2)
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e.g., Charts and graphs

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Characterize data (Chapter 3)

?x ? e.g., Sample mean =
n

i

Chap 1-21

Data Sources
Primary
Data Collection

Secondary
Data Compilation

Print or Electronic Observation Survey

Experimentation
Chap 1-22

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Chap 1-23

Data Sources

Print or Electronic

Chap 1-24

Survey Design Steps
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Define the issue
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what are the purpose and objectives of the survey?

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Define the population of interest

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Formulate survey questions
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make questions clear and unambiguous use universally-accepted definitions limit the number of questions

Chap 1-25

Survey Design Steps
(continued)
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Pre-test the survey
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pilot test with a small group of participants assess clarity and length

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Determine the sample size and sampling method
Select Sample and administer the survey

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Chap 1-26

Types of Questions
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Closed-end Questions（封闭式问题）
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Select from a short list of defined choices

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Example: Major: __business __liberal arts __science __other Open-end Questions （开放式问题）
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Respondents are free to respond with any value, words, or statement

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Demographic Questions（人口统计学问题）
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Questions about the respondents’ personal characteristics

Example: Gender: __Female __ Male
Chap 1-27

Populations and Samples
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A Population（总体，母体） is the set of all items or individuals of interest
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Examples:

All likely voters in the next election All parts produced today All sales receipts for November

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A Sample （样本） is a subset of the population
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Examples:

1000 voters selected at random for interview A few parts selected for destructive testing Every 100th receipt selected for audit

Chap 1-28

Population vs. Sample
Population
a b cd

Sample
b c

ef gh i jk l m n
o p q rs t u v w x y z o

gi
r y

n
u

Chap 1-29

Why Sample?
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Less time consuming than a census
Less costly to administer than a census

It is possible to obtain statistical results of a sufficiently high precision based on samples.

Chap 1-30

Sampling Techniques
Samples

Non-Probability Samples Judgement
Convenience

Probability Samples
Simple Random

Systematic Cluster

Stratified

Chap 1-31

Statistical Sampling
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Items of the sample are chosen based on known or calculable probabilities
Probability Samples

Simple
Random

Stratified

Systematic

Cluster

Chap 1-32

Simple Random Samples（简单随机样本）
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Every individual or item from the population has an equal chance of being selected
Selection may be with replacement or without replacement Samples can be obtained from a table of random numbers or computer random number generators

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Chap 1-33

Stratified Samples（分层样本）
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Population divided into subgroups (called strata) according to some common characteristic Simple random sample selected from each subgroup Samples from subgroups are combined into one

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Population Divided into 4 strata

Sample
Chap 1-34

Systematic Samples（系统样本）
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Decide on sample size: n Divide frame of N individuals into groups of k individuals: k=N/n

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Randomly select one individual from the 1st group
Select every kth individual thereafter
N = 64 n=8 k=8
Chap 1-35

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First Group

Cluster Samples（集群样本）
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Population is divided into several “clusters,” each representative of the population
A simple random sample of clusters is selected
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All items in the selected clusters can be used, or items can be chosen from a cluster using another probability sampling technique

Population divided into 16 clusters.

Randomly selected clusters for sample
Chap 1-36

Key Definitions
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A population is the entire collection of things under consideration
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A population parameter（参数） is a summary measure computed to describe a characteristic of the population

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A sample is a portion of the population selected for analysis
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A sample statistic（统计量） is a summary measure computed to describe a characteristic of the sample
Chap 1-37

Inferential Statistics
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Making statements about a population by examining sample results
Population parameters
(unknown, but can be estimated from sample evidence) (known)

Sample statistics

Inference

Sample

Population

Chap 1-38

Inferential Statistics
Drawing conclusions and/or making decisions concerning a population based on sample results.
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Estimation（估计）
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e.g., Estimate the population mean weight using the sample mean weight

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Hypothesis Testing（假设检验）
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e.g., Use sample evidence to test the claim that the population mean weight is 120 pounds
Chap 1-39

Data Types
Data

Qualitative (Categorical)
Examples:
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Quantitative (Numerical)

Marital Status Political Party Eye Color (Defined categories)

Discrete
Examples:
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Continuous
Examples:
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Number of Children Defects per hour (Counted items)

Weight Voltage (Measured characteristics)
Chap 1-40

Data Types

Examples:
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Marital Status Political Party Eye Color (Defined categories)

Examples:
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Examples:
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Number of Children Defects per hour (Counted items)

Weight Voltage (Measured characteristics)
Chap 1-41

Data Types
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Time Series Data（时间序列数据）
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Ordered data values observed over time

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Cross Section Data（截面数据）
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Data values observed at a fixed point in time

Chap 1-42

Data, Data Sets, Elements, Variables, and Observations
Variables

Company

Stock Exchange

Annual Earn/ Sales(\$M) Sh.(\$)

Dataram EnergySouth Keystone LandCare Psychemedics
Elements

AMEX OTC NYSE NYSE AMEX
Data Set

73.10 74.00 365.70 111.40 17.60

0.86 1.67 0.86 0.33 0.13
Datum
Chap 1-43

Data Types
Sales (in \$1000’s) 2003 Atlanta Boston Cleveland Denver 435 320 405 260 2004 460 345 390 270 2005 475 375 410 285 2006 490 395 395 280 Time Series Data

Cross Section Data
Chap 1-44

Data Measurement Levels
Measurements

Ratio/Interval Data

Highest Level Complete Analysis

Rankings Ordered Categories

Ordinal Data

Higher Level Mid-level Analysis

Categorical Codes ID Numbers Category Names

Nominal Data

Lowest Level Basic Analysis

Measurements

Highest Level Complete Analysis

Rankings Ordered Categories

Higher Level Mid-level Analysis

Categorical Codes ID Numbers Category Names

Lowest Level Basic Analysis

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1. 定类数据Nominal
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3. 定距数据Interval
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2. 定序数据Ordinal
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Chap 1-47

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4. 定比数据Ratio
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(定量的)

(定性的)

Chap 1-48

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1. 数值数据
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2. 类型数据
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Chap 1-49

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1. 定类数据Nominal
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3. 定距数据Interval
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2. 定序数据Ordinal
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Chap 1-50

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4. 定比数据Ratio
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1. 性别 ¨ 男，女
2. 体重 ¨ 123, 140.2 等等. 3. 汽车速度 ¨ 78, 64, 45 等等.

4.
5. 6.

Chap 1-51

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1. 破坏受试对象
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2. 精确可靠的结果 3. 实际的理由
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Chap 1-52

Chap 1-53

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1. 总体中的每个元素被选中的 机会均等 2. 选择一个受试对象对其他元 素没有影响 3. 使用随机数表，抽奖等

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?1984-1994 T/Maker Co.

Chap 1-54

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1. 在前ｋ个元素中随机选 定初始值, 之后每向后数ｋ 个选定一个元素 2. 跳过区间的长度ｋ等于

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3. 应用于电话调查

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?1984-1994 T/Maker Co.

Chap 1-55

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1. 把总体分为群组
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2. 在组中随机选取样本 Select Simple Random Samples from Subgroups 样本

Chap 1-56

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1. 给总体分组

2. 随机选类
3. 对选定的类进行普查或 随机抽样调查

Chap 1-57

Chap 1-58

Chap 1-59

Chap 1-60

Chapter Summary
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Reviewed key data collection methods
Introduced key definitions:
?Population vs. Sample
?Qualitative vs. Qualitative data
?Primary vs. Secondary data types

?Time Series vs. Cross-Sectional data

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Examined descriptive vs. inferential statistics Described different sampling techniques Reviewed data types and measurement levels

Chap 1-61

Chap 1-62

MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTIONS
When the park ranger at Yellowstone National Park reports the average length of time that visitors spend in the park, he is using: a. graphical tools. b. numerical measures. c. statistical charts. d. histograms or bar charts. Answer: B
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Chap 1-63

The Biltmore Hotel manager is getting ready to make a presentation that she hopes will justify adding additional staff. As part of the presentation, she has constructed charts and graphs. The general type of statistical analysis she is using is: a. hypothesis testing. b. estimation. c. inferential statistics. d. descriptive statistics. Answer: D
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Chap 1-64

A tire manufacturing company is interested in obtaining data on stopping distances for each of the three main tread types made by the company. The data collection method that would be most likely used in this case would be: a. telephone survey. b. written questionnaire. c. demographic surveying. d. experiments. Answer: D
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Chap 1-65

Which of the following data collection methods is most likely to generate the largest nonresponse? a. Mail surveys b. Direct observation c. Telephone surveys d. Personal interviews Answer: A
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Chap 1-66

In conducting a personal interview, what problem can result if the interviewer is allowed to arbitrarily decide who should be interviewed? a. Non-responses b. Missing data c. Bias d. None of the above. Answer: C
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Chap 1-67

Another term used for statistical sampling is: a. probability sampling. b. convenience sampling. c. ratio sampling. d. numerical sampling. Answer: A
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Chap 1-68

If a systematic random sample is to be selected of size 100 from a population with 5,000 items, the first item selected from the ordered population will be: a. randomly selected between 1 and 100. b. randomly selected between 1 and 50. c. any randomly selected value between 1 and 5,000. d. item 50. Answer: B
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Chap 1-69

General Electric Corporation tracks employee turnover annually. They currently have a data set that contains turnover for the past 20 years. What type of data do they have? a. Time series data b. Cross-sectional data c. Nominal data d. Ordinal data Answer: A
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Chap 1-70

One difference between interval level data and ratio level data is: a. ratio level data are in numerical order. b. interval level data have a true zero. c. ratio level data have a true zero. d. None of the above. Answer: C
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Chap 1-71

Keeping up!
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Do exercises 1-57、63、64

Chap 1-72

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